Economic Scenario Model (ESM)

Update 21.05.24 - Section 1 contract value (ex VAT) updated in line with the now known expected spend on additional modules. The scope for additional modules and subsequent spend were included within the Invitation to Tender and Award Notices.

The PPF procured a licence and associated services for an Economic Scenario Model (ESM) for use in assumption-generation for a range of medium and long-term modelling. The solution provides a real-world calibration of an appropriate timeframe, including outputs for a sufficiently broad range of asset classes given the investment strategy of the PPF and the pension schemes it protects. The outputs also facilitate the projection of the liabilities of the PPF and those of the pension schemes it protects.

The contract awarded is for an initial duration of 60 months, with options to extend for up to three further 12 month terms. If the extensions are all exercised the total contract duration will be 96 months. If all extensions are executed the total final value is estimated to be £1,115,410.02 + VAT.

The PPF is a continuously developing business within a changing market and it is envisaged that there will be a future requirement for further components, modules or packages within the economic scenario model solution, including bespoke developments within the system which are reserved for the PPF's use only. It is fully envisaged that these components and modules will be developed over the life of the contract not only to reflect changes in the market, but also the PPF's strategy, including, but not limited to, changes in approach to the amount of business retained or brought in-house, the nature and size of the PPF's assets and liabilities and the PPF's approach to risk and return. This may require additional components and modules not currently listed, or development of the services themselves or existing services provided to the PPF which support or are supported by these services. It is further envisaged that additional software, including licences, may need to be developed to enhance the services, to increase efficiency and streamline the services, to increase the availability of the services in line with changes in the market, anticipated changes to the PPF's strategy over the life of the contract and changes in the nature and size of the PPF's assets and liabilities or to develop other services that support or are supported by these services. These additional services, systems, software and licences may result in price revision of the original contract and/or may significantly increase the fees paid in relation to these services over the life of the contract. The PPF makes no guarantee as to the nature and extent of such additional services, systems, software or licences. Note that the contract value stated above is the estimated value of the contract assuming all extension options are taken but does not include the cost of all potential additional services, systems, software and licences.