Modelling livestock production and GHG emissions: an assessment of the global environmental impact of embedded soy, palm oil and maize

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Background: Globally, livestock and livestock feed use approximately 80% of the world's agricultural land, yet livestock provide only 20% of the calories consumed by humans. The production and consumption of livestock - and the crops that are grown to feed them - is one the principal driver of deforestation and ecosystem conversion, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (including methane), and biodiversity loss globally. Where livestock production is intensive, local environmental impacts (e.g., water pollution) can be severe. The rising demand for animal protein, and the intensive way it is increasingly produced risk future exposure to novel zoonotic diseases. Livestock can play a key role in regenerative land use, with ruminants in particular having a unique capacity to turn low nutritional value fodder into high quality protein. However, the scale of production globally far exceeds a sustainable limit. WWF wishes to further understand the way in which the production of global commodities, trade and consumption of livestock and livestock feed is driving local and planetary impacts on the environment. The starting place is soy - a crop that is principally fed to monogastric species (poultry, pigs) and which is responsible for biome-level conversion in some of its production areas. However, beef (and dairy) production is the single largest driver of deforestation, and so must be considered, whilst other feed crops (maize, wheat, palm kernel expeller) are also widely used for feed and their growth has significant environmental impacts. WWF is interested to commission a study that can analyse this issue, while proposing a model to assess GHG emissions linked to livestock production (embedded soy, palm oil, maize). This will help assess costs linked to production through the lens of climate change, and support wider discussions on the impact related to NDCs, trade agreements and private sector commitments.

Research questions: The specific research questions to be addressed are: 1. What are the major trade flows worldwide of livestock products and livestock feed? 2. What are the impacts of production of feed and livestock products on net exporter countries, in terms of deforestation, GHG emissions, and ecosystem services? 3. Where are the expanding frontiers of production and consumption? 4. How can the contribution of embedded soy and other feeds be Incorporated Into existing policies and legislative frameworks (such as the EUDR, UK Due Diligence of forest risk commodities) 5. What policies/frameworks (if any) are considering impacts of production in livestock products and feed? 6. How can ESG metrics (building from existing efforts of investor driven disclosure CDP on companies and more recently banks and public assessments by Global Canopy and ZSL SPOTT ) incorporate the environmental and social risks of livestock and livestock feed trade in the finance sector?