Climate Change Risk Assessment 4 - Technical Report

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 requires that every five years, the UK government must publish a climate change risk assessment. UK Government, and each of the 3 devolved administrations, must then create National Adaptation Programmes, including actions to address the risks in the most recent risk assessment. The Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) Government Report is due to be published in January 2027. As with CCRA2 and CCRA3, CCRA4 will be based on an Independent Assessment that the CCC has been commissioned by Defra to lead, described in this document as the Climate Change Risk Assessment Independent Assessment (CCRA4-IA). CCRA4-IA will be published in mid-2026.

The CCRA3 Independent Assessment (CCRA3-IA) was published in June 2021. This assessment focused on development of a Technical Report (which was the basis for a range of other outputs, including national summaries and sectoral briefings) as well as supplementary research. The CCRA3-IA Technical Report covered the underlying analysis and assessment of the level of risk or opportunity from climate change to the UK as well as the latest understanding of current and future climate change in the UK. This included an urgency framework based on a review of current and future adaptation action, to aid the prioritisation of the 61 risks and opportunities identified. CCRA3-IA included greater emphasis on accessibility for the primary audience of Government and Devolved Administrations, including hosting of a UK Climate Risk website (www.ukclimaterisk.org) .

As with CCRA3-IA, the CCRA4-IA will include a technical report that provides an authoritative assessment of the most up-to-date peer-reviewed literature on climate risks and opportunities to the UK, and their urgency for adaptation action over the coming five years. This report will focus on literature published since the cut-off date for inclusion of evidence in CCRA3-IA in 2021. A key aim for the CCRA4-IA will be to produce outputs that are directly usable and accessible for decision support by key, non-technical audiences - particularly for national Government officials working to develop national adaptation plans and programmes across the UK.

The primary purpose of the CCRA4-IA Technical Report is to identify the range of climate change risks and opportunities to the UK and assess the urgency for action for national adaptation policy programmes. This report will seek to answer the exam question: "How has the evidence on the full range of risks that face the UK, and their urgency, continued to evolve over the last five years?"

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