Analysis to investigate the potential excess charging demand along the strategic road network on days of peak demand, compared to the average

1 Introduction and summary of requirements / Preamble The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

2 Background In November 2020, the UK Government announced that all new sales of conventional petrol and diesel light-duty vehicles must end by 2030. Therefore, the automotive market will need to transition to electric vehicles. As the UK's transition to EVs ramps up, charging infrastructure will be needed to meet the demand of all drivers, whilst ensuring that the network is able to deliver the amount of charging required. It is likely that there will be certain periods throughout the year where demand will be higher than the average levels of travel demand on which the majority of charging infrastructure plans are likely to be based. For example, during winter months and particularly around the Christmas period, demand is expected to be higher as a result of higher consumer demand for home delivery, maintenance and medical services, as well as increased personal travel on certain days.

Daily traffic flow data published by National Highways from their network of MIDAS detectors along the strategic road network can be used to infer information about demand variation along different roads. This data shows that, in 2019, on the motorway in one region there were nine days (mostly around bank holiday weekends) for which car traffic was over 10% above the typical weekly peak (Fridays). When compared to the overall average demand across the year, these peaks were around 30-40% higher. By contrast, demand on the motorway in another region was much more stable, with no days surpassing 10% above the typical weekly peak and variation from the overall daily average never exceeding 20%. This shows that there can be rare peak events on heavily trafficked tourist roads that see traffic climb considerably above typical demand. We would expect this to translate to excess peak demand for en-route charging at service stations along such roads. However, these patterns are not uniform, with demand on roads that are less associated with leisure travel showing less variation.

Therefore, it is clear that, in some regions, there will be points across the year where demand is significantly higher than average. This raises the question - is the current plan for charging infrastructure deployment enough to meet the needs of drivers on these peak demand days? More in-depth exploration of data, such as National Highways, could be used to generate evidence-based peak demand scenarios.

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Additional information: The CCC project manager will be Jaya Jassi/Eoin Devane

Tel: 07979117567 or 07920541882 Email: [email protected] or [email protected]