A Review of Gas Security of Supply within the GB Gas Market – from the Present to 2035.

DECC is looking for a contractor or contractors to assess the level of security with regard to the supply of natural gas in GB, from the present to 2035 (20 years). This work is expected to provide new insights rather than replicate existing studies.

It will follow a staged approach:

Stage 1 – Understanding risks The contractor will produce a comprehensive list of risks to GB’s ability to meet gas demand needs, attach a probability to each of these risks, and identify correlated risks.

This stage should answer the question: what risks is the GB gas system exposed to, how likely are these, and which risks are correlated?

Stage 2 – Assessing impact and identifying scenarios The contractor will make a high level assessment of the impact of individual risks occurring on the gas system. The contractor will then identify (with DECC and Ofgem) the key combinations of vulnerabilities which could result in a near or actual disruption to gas supplies.

Questions answered: is any individual risk likely to cause unmet demand? What combination of scenarios is likely to cause unmet demand?

Stage 3 – Stress testing the system The contractor will model a selection of the combination events identified in the preceding stage, testing how the market would respond in order to assess whether gas supplies would be disrupted, and to what extent.

Questions answered: how will the market respond to the key risks? Would demand be met? If not, what is the volume of demand that is not met and what are the sources of unmet demand?

This analysis will provide Ministers with the information they need to understand the expected level of security from the present to c.2035.

Additional information: If you wish to take part in this procurement please see the Tender documents attached to this Notice and send your completed proposal to Tatiana Boucard at address stipulated in the “Submitting your tender” section by 4 November 2015. We require 3 hard copies (one of which must be signed). Please also send an electronic version of your bids by the deadline to Tatiana Boucard ([email protected]). If successful and upon contract signature, the supplier is expected to attend a kick-off meeting taking place on 23 November 2015. Project completion is required by 11 July 2016. Any late submissions will not be considered. DECC reserves the right to halt the procurement process and to not award a contract. DECC will not be held liable for recovery of costs from unsuccessful bids if a contract is not awarded. All costs will be borne by the bidding organisations. If a contract is created it will be upon DECC Standard Terms and Conditions, which are available on Contracts Finder with this notice.