Developing a mathematical modelling proof of concept for children looked after in Wales

What is required / ‘The Requirements’Reducing the number of children who are looked after in Wales remains a priority for Welsh Government. Rates in Wales are the highest in the UK . Entering the care system is known to have a detrimental effect on longer term outcomes for children in terms of educational attainment, health, employment, homelessness and criminal justice. Despite higher numbers of children in care, there is variation across Wales. This may be linked to a number of different interactions including, safeguarding practice, deprivation and parental factors.Understanding these interactions and how they might affect the looked after population and the likelihood of entry to the care system would provide a valuable source of information and insight into the dynamics of the care system that could aid the safe reduction of the children looked after population in Wales. Modelling could also provide a mechanism to test preventative measures to sustain reduction or reduce entry to the care system in Wales.We wish to work with an experienced supplier or consortia to develop predictive and prescriptive models for looked after children in Wales. Data on children looked after in Wales is reasonably mature with person-based data having been collected for 20 years. In addition to this, a great amount of research has been collected on the wider determinants of care in the UK and beyond.We require the following:1 An assessment of available data, research and evidence on children looked after in Wales and elsewhere.2 A review of available modelling techniques with an appraisal of their suitability for developing a model for children looked after in Wales.3 A functional proof of concept of a mathematical data model for children looked after in Wales.4 A working representation of the prototype model developed in conjunction with Social Care Wales and partners on the National social care data portal.5 Recommendations for scaling the project into beta and production versions.Aims and objectives1 To develop novel techniques to better understand the dynamics of the children looked after system in Wales with the ambition of using the insight provided to improve outcomes for children looked after and safely reduce numbers of children looked after.2 To better understand the wider determinants of becoming looked after and how these factors interact.3 To continue to refine our modelling approaches to provide better predictive and prescriptive insight.4 To use the learning from this work and apply it to other areas of care and support.OutputsIt is expected that the supplier will:a) Produce a functional proof of concept model for children looked after in Wales.b) Work with Social Care Wales to demonstrate the feasibility of the model on the National social care data portal for Wales.c) Produce a report in both Welsh and English containing a write up of your work. This should include:i. information on the approach to developing the model.ii. information on how the model has been tested to ensure that it produces meaningful outputs that conform to expectations.iii. information on the vulnerabilities and limitations of the model and how these may be improved or overcome.iv. recommendations for progression to beta and production versions of the model.Please see specification for more detail