‘Building a Sustainable Welsh Food System’ Part 3 – Economic & Social/Culture Impact Assessment of A

Purpose and Scope of WorkWWF Cymru is seeking to build on a recently completed assessment of the biophysical capacity of food production in Wales to transition to a fully agroecological net zero pathway by 2050. This work consisted of the formulation of a computer model that projected the likely impact of a full agroecological shift on existing food production; the resultant impact on territorial and total greenhouse gas emissions/sequestration; and the potential to diversify production to better reflect Welsh nutritional needs .To develop these results further, WWF Cymru now wishes to refine a series of scenarios (examples provided below) to allow the model to be rerun, and then to undertake a wider economic & social/cultural analysis of the results.The aim of this work is to produce a series of assessed transition pathways that show both the likely impact on food production, carbon emissions/sequestration, and the obtainment of dietary needs; and the likely impact they would have if pursued on the rural Welsh economy and society out to 2050.The results will be used to inform Welsh Government policy and the wider sustainable land management discourse in Wales to foster positive changes in agricultural support and wider rural investment.Potential ScenariosThe scenarios will be developed by the successful bidder in agreement with WWF Cymru and based on the limitations of the existing model . However, our initial views are that the following should be considered:Historic Welsh Government Target (Low Carbon Plan 1)• Welsh agriculture transitions so far as is sufficient to result in a territorial direct agriculture sector emissions reduction of 36% (on 1990 baseline) by 2050.Land of Plenty Target (Balanced)• Welsh agriculture transitions so far as is sufficient to result in a territorial direct agriculture sector emissions reduction of 35% by 2030, and 51% by 2050 on 2018 baseline. Furthermore, an all-agricultural emission (including scope 3 emissions from artificial fertiliser and soy feed)) reduction of 34% by 2030 and 53% (2018 baseline) by 2050.Land of Plenty Target (Sheep farming Focus)• Welsh agriculture transitions so far as is sufficient to result in the above Land of Plenty scenario, yet efforts are made to maximise sheep numbers within the land’s environmental carrying capacity.Economic & Social/Cultural AnalysisOnce the models have been designed and run the successful bidder will be required to undertake an economic and social/cultural analysis of each – along with the existing ‘full agroecological shift’ run of the model. In addition to these model runs the successful bidder will also need to draw on Welsh Government’s existing Impact Assessment of their proposed Sustainable Farming Scheme transition and that of their ‘status-quo’ projection.The parameters of this analysis are to be agreed between WWF Cymru and the successful bidder, but we expect the following (non-exhaustive) factors to be considered:• The amount of gross investment needed to realise the different pathways, and how much of that value can be retained in Wales• Agricultural sector annual FTE employment creation potential (both on farm and wider ancillary actives)• Macro-economic impact (GVA, GDP)• Local economic spend and rural economic potential (eg recreation & sequestration)• Farm input costs, income (from existing and new ‘products’) and overall profitability and productivity• Potential skills gaps and training needs• Impact on farm numbers and size• Collective impact on the Welsh language and sector demographics• Likely sectorial physical and mental health impacts• Likely impact on environmental benefits - water & air quality, plus flood regulation (to include e.g. avoided water treatment costs)• High level biodiversity and carbon sequestration assessmentOutputs: WWF Cymru requires the analysis to be presented in the form of a written report which contains the assessment for each scenario. These should be presented in a way which allows comparisons between each. We also require an additional non-technical summary report that is pitched towards public consumption. For this to work we expect it to include the use of infographics and other visual tools which present the results clearly, along with the policy steps which should be prioritised to achieve that scenario.WWF Cymru will require at least two rounds of edits to a report draft with the final version complete by the date provided below.Response Requirement:You must be able to demonstrate and evidence:1. Understanding of the brief and propose options for the approach. Please outline possible time frames and requirements of us in a high-level project plan.2. Depth and breadth of expertise in this field in the charity /not for profit / NGO and commercial / private sectors. Please include names of recent clients for who you have delivered similar work.3. A strong team that can provide responsive service – i.e. not key person dependent – continuous service available. Please provide short biographies for all those who would be involved on the project4. A strong alignment with WWF’s vision and mission with values that respect diversity, equality and inclusivity and evidence of partnership working. Please provide a short statement on this and how you evidence your values in your work.5. Value for money; competitive pricing for expertise. We need fees to be clear and structured in a flexible way. Please state day / hourly rates and price per project element, ideally with capped fees.6. Confidentiality and Data protection. Please provide your confidentiality statement and GDPR principles.7. Diversity, Equality and Inclusivity (DE&I). Please share your approach to DE&I and how you would approach the project in this respect.8. References. Please provide two referee clients. (We would not approach without your permission).9. It is our preference that an appointed external partner adopts our standards terms and conditions for engaging with us. These are attached. Please can you state whether or not you would be comfortable with this and whether or not there are any terms which might create difficulty for you.The Selection ProcessIn line with our procurement process, we are now approaching 4 organisations (to ensure we get at least 3 responses) who might be able to provide the above services. A panel comprising at least 3 people, will consider the responses and make a decision based on the following criteria, with approximate weightings shown:1. 25%: The organisation’s proposed approach to the 9 points above2. 20%: Depth and breadth of expertise as evidenced by recent client work3. 20%: Values, partnership, inclusivity – alignment with WWF4. 35%: Price – value for moneyTimelines and Next StepsThis RFIQ was issued during w/c 6th February 2023.Any potential providers can speak to Alexander Phillips with any queries, on [email protected] request that all responses are returned to us by 21st February, 2023A decision will be made as soon as possible with a view to the project starting in March 2023Budget: Bid should not exceed £30,000 inclusive of VAT.Projected Completion Date: 30/04/2023NOTE: To register your interest in this notice and obtain any additional information please visit the Sell2Wales Web Site at https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Search/Search_Switch.aspx?ID=128932.

.The Selection ProcessIn line with our procurement process, we are now approaching 4 organisations (to ensure we get at least 3 responses) who might be able to provide the above services. A panel comprising at least 3 people, will consider the responses and make a decision based on the following criteria, with approximate weightings shown:1. 25%: The organisation’s proposed approach to the 9 points above2. 20%: Depth and breadth of expertise as evidenced by recent client work3. 20%: Values, partnership, inclusivity – alignment with WWF4. 35%: Price – value for moneyTimelines and Next StepsThis RFIQ was issued during w/c 6th February 2023.Any potential providers can speak to Alexander Phillips with any queries, on [email protected] request that all responses are returned to us by 21st February, 2023A decision will be made as soon as possible with a view to the project starting in March 2023Budget: Bid should not exceed £30,000 inclusive of VAT.Projected Completion Date: 30/04/2023(WA Ref:128932)The buyer considers that this contract is suitable for consortia bidding.