Development of trajectories of residential heat decarbonisation ahead of the sixth carbon budget

In May 2019 the Committee on Climate Change published 'Net Zero: The UK's contribution to stopping global warming'. This report set out the Committee's advice that the UK should commit to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Earlier this year the Government and Devolved Administrations subsequently legislated for net zero greenhouse gas targets to be enacted in law.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions requires a close-to-full decarbonisation of heat in buildings.

As part of our advice on net zero, we developed a view of the different technology mixes which have potential to almost fully decarbonise buildings by 2050. To achieve net zero across the economy, buildings emissions must be reduced close to zero (to 5 MtCO2e or less in 2050), but the preferred technology mix is not yet clear (e.g. the balance between heat pumps, hydrogen, hybrid heat pumps and energy efficiency). As we look towards the sixth carbon budget, our task is now to establish what trajectory of deployment is needed to keep us on track to 2050 and beyond, whilst keeping options open across a range of potential scenarios.

To meet our net zero ambition in buildings, the next 5-15 years will be critical.

We must have meaningful and well-funded policies in place, skilled supply chains must be appropriately supported and trialling and testing at scale will be needed to inform strategic decisions on national and local infrastructure.

The CCC will need a trajectory of deployment which balances these considerations and informs not only what will be needed for the sixth carbon budget period from 2033 to 2037, but in the years leading up to this.

This in turn will be a critical input to the near-term decisions that are urgently needed from Government on policies for delivery, and on the funding required to support them.

A number of key Government publications are expected in the coming year including the Government's heat decarbonisation policy roadmap, the Treasury's review of how the costs of the transition to a net-zero society can be funded, and the spending review and budget. The Committee's advice will be published in September 2020, three months before it is required by the Climate Change Act to ensure that it precedes the pivotal international climate change conference (COP26) due to take place in Glasgow in December 2020. *** See Specification for more detail ***