Future Offshore Wind Deployment Scenarios

The UK is committed to a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050 and offshore wind is expected to play a key role. The UK currently has more offshore wind turbines installed than any other country in the world. Through the Offshore Wind Sector Deal, the UK Government and the sector are working to accelerate deployment by 2030, while boosting the UK economy, enhancing growth in the regions and continuing to reduce costs. This research will seek to define a range of plausible scenarios for offshore wind development up until 2050. The research will seek to assess the extent to which deployment levels are constrained by technical, economic, environmental and system factors. The research will examine the key drivers of costs and how these relate to increased offshore wind deployment, as well as the role of floating offshore wind in overcoming spatial limitations and at what cost.

Through defining a range of spatial scenarios to offshore wind deployment, the primary objectives are to: • Identify future potential trade-offs as the deployment of fixed bottom and floating offshore wind increases for the UK to meet a net zero consistent level of offshore wind deployment by 2050. • Identify which further regions/areas could be suitable for future deployment of fixed and floating offshore wind regarding other interests, users and sensitivities. • Analyse how the relative costs of deployment vary as deployment levels increase (i.e. as the most technically / economically feasible sites are utilised). • Examine the role of floating offshore wind in overcoming the identified constraints and rising costs of fixed offshore wind deployment.

The research will build on existing spatial analysis conducted by The Crown Estate which maps the key resource areas and constraints of offshore wind deployment. The research will also draw from the Scottish Government's Sectoral Marine Plan, which aims to identify the most sustainable options for the future development of commercial-scale offshore wind energy in Scotland.

This research will develop and present a variety of spatial scenarios, to graphically illustrate where deployment of offshore wind locations could be in the UK by 2050. This will result in a written report outlining the methodology and conclusions.

The outputs will allow a much greater understanding of the limits to deploying offshore wind, and how costs may change as deployment increases.

This procurement will be carried out via the CCS Research Marketplace Dynamic Purchasing System (DPS). Any potential bidders not already on the DPS will need to register and allow up to 15 working days to process your application. The following DPS filters will be used to shortlist potential bidders: Analysis: - Cost Benefit Analysis - Desk Research - Horizon Scanning - Outcome Mapping - Scenario Building

Reporting Outputs - Data Visualisation - In-Depth/Bespoke Reporting and Analysis - Infographics - Online Results and Data Portals - Presentations